Our forecasts, published in advance and checked
Each evening we will publish a forecast for the next morning at three named spots. Each morning we will check it against what happened. Every result stays on this page, including the wrong ones.
- –
- Forecasts checked
- –
- Correct
- –
- Correct rate
Why we publish this
There is no reason to trust a new forecast app's claims. Instead, we publish dated forecasts in advance, check them with rules we set beforehand, and keep every miss on the record.
The public record starts with the beta.
The rules below are final, and we are testing the checking process privately first. The date of the first public forecast will be shown here, and no result will be removed after that.
Read the rulesThe three spots
One beach, one point and one reef. All are well-known spots that can be clearly seen from shore each morning.
Sand bottom that changes shape over time. The hardest of the three to predict.
Rocky point with waves that break in a consistent place, so results are easy to check.
Reef with a fixed breaking area. Tests the sea floor analysis directly.
The rules
Published before the first public forecast, so they cannot be changed afterwards.
- 1
Four height ranges
Each forecast is one of four ranges: waist, shoulder, head high, or overhead. A range can be checked from a photo. An exact number can't.
- 2
Published the night before
Each forecast is published the evening before, with a timestamp.
- 3
Same place, same time
Each spot is checked from the same viewpoint at the same time every morning.
- 4
Correct means inside the range
If the observed height is inside the forecast range, it is correct. Otherwise it is wrong. There is no partial credit.
- 5
Unclear results count as wrong
If the observed height is between two ranges, the forecast is marked wrong.
- 6
Wrong forecasts stay
Wrong forecasts are crossed out, never deleted. The correct rate includes every forecast.
- 7
Checked by others where possible
Local club members send in the morning photo and height range, so we are not only checking ourselves.
Every forecast
Newest first. Crossed-out rows were wrong.
No forecasts yet. The first row will appear with the first public forecast.
Wrong forecast of the month
The wrong forecast we learned the most from, and why it was wrong.
Nothing yet, because no forecasts have been published.
This record shows forecasts and results only. It is not a guarantee, and results at three spots are not a promise about other spots.